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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milo_morai who wrote (71460)	2/14/2002 1:50:34 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

UMC dropping Dow's SiLK from performance 130-nm process Well....the conference call certainly gave a hint for this. It is good for AMD and UMC to get to a common process ASAP especially if AMD feels confident with their CVD low k dielectric. There should be plenty of time for AMD and UMC to get the process straightened out at UMC before any serious volume is attempted there. Besides the BEOL, they need to qualify their local interconnect process and I assume they will transfer their device design recipe as well as their methodology for channel length control. I would think by year end, they should be able to do all this. It will be interesting to see if IBM/Seimens continue on with SILK or not. Assuming everything goes on schedule for AMD, it would appear they will make a big push for higher volumes by 1st quarter 2003. One could easily predict the following produced in the first quarter 2003 all on .13um. 4.7 million Tbred 2.4 million Clawhammers 2.9 million value proc. (name?) in Dresden 2.5 million value proc. (name?) from UMC That's 12.5 million for first quarter 2003. Can AMD sell all these? Since AMD will have VERY competitive solutions for all desktop options, maybe 80% of the mobile options, and both 1/2 way servers and work stations, will Intel cut prices in all areas to the bone to prevent market share loss? This will be the first time AMD has enough volume in all segments to really hurt Intel. Will AMD have all the infrastructure ready for a big volume push? It would seem that they have to sell it if they make it. So.... how cheap will they have to go to sell everything. Even a $90 ASP would look good against these volumes. I'm just throwing these numbers out there. It seems to me that late 2002/early 2003 is the best time for AMD to go for the volume assuming a recovering economy, the competitive environment, and their added volume capabilities of .13um and UMC. What do others think will happen?? Especially with regard to what mix of products would be the best for AMD to offer?? THE WATSONYOUTH