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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (158504)	2/12/2002 1:05:38 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Beamer - Nice breakdown on Hector and AMD and analysis of AMD's poor performing and money losing DregsDen fab. Paul

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (158504)	2/12/2002 1:18:42 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

wbmw, - First, he says that AMD is not selling everything they make. Either they are stockpiling (doubtful), or they are demand limited (probable). On demand limited - definitely, with qualifications I posted: Duron=Yes, Thunderbird=Yes, Palomino=Probably not demand limited. - Third, Hector says that they are running at wafer start capacity. That means 5,000 WSPW, which is what Dresden's capacity is rating at. Either this has changed, or AMD isn't getting the world class yields that they also claim. How about Dresden is running at wafer start capacity at the time Hector said it - mid January 2002 minus lines being converted to .13u? Therefore, given what Hector has said, it is my opinion that AMD does have inventory, partially due to being demand constrained (meaning that Intel parts are still more popular in the market). They also are going to be short of what Dresden is capable of due to lower yields, given that they are at capacity in terms of wafer starts, and they are also short in terms of unit volumes. Can you run this by me again? Especially where you differ from my theory? I think, so far, my theory seems the most reasonable (that's why it's my current theory), but I am far from certain that that's the way things are, so I would welcome reasonable theories that differ from mine. Joe

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (158504)	2/12/2002 1:59:48 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: I don't believe that AMD will try to collapse ASPs (and neither will Intel, for that matter) Never in the history of these two companies has either one been capable of sitting on (not using) brand new, very expensive, fast depreciating capacity while the other holds or gains market share. They won't "try to collapse" ASPs, but that will be effect of the inevitable battle for market share, as both companies move from a capacity shortage situation to an excess capacity situation.