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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1933)	2/12/2002 6:02:21 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95963

Close Dow -21.04 at 9863.74, S&P -4.44 at 1107.50, Nasdaq -12.44 at 1834.21: Equities opened in the red following a 2-day, largely short-covering fueled run. Cautious comments from Nortel (NT 6.42 -0.42) spurred weakness in early trading. Nortel said that customers are not willing to spend any more than they have to in the near term, which will make Q1 numbers more difficult to make. This weighed on the telecom equipment sector all day. However, the market soon started trading higher with various spurts. Biotech stocks were the clear leader. Many in the group had been shorted over the past couple of weeks on accounting concerns at Elan (ELN 14.75 +0.45). However, that sentiment appears to be lifting. Also, Merrill Lynch was positive on some biotech names this morning. Generic drugmaker Andrx (ADRX 46.40 +1.37), which was at $70 just 6 weeks ago, fought back today thanks to a positive note from Goldman Sachs....Semi equipment stocks were weak ahead of Applied Materials (AMAT 44.71 -0.97) earnings report after the bell.... 5:23PM Network Appliance provides Q4 guidance (NTAP) 16.45 -0.86: -- Update -- On call, says that until IT spending environment shows signs of improving, it is maintaining a conservative outlook... Projects modest sequential revenue growth of 2-5% and Q4 pro forma earnings to be relatively flat with Q3; expects continued growth in backlog... Multex consensus revenue estimate of $209.05 mln implies sequential growth of 5%; Multex consensus EPS estimate is $0.03... NTAP +1.15 at 17.60 5:14PM Network Appliance comments on Q3 (NTAP) 16.45 -0.86: -- Update -- On call, says DSOs dropped to 64 days from 81 days in fiscal Q2; doesn't expect any measurable reduction in DSO over the near-term... says 150bp of margin improvement in fiscal Q3 is non-recurring... Q3 tax rate adjusted up to 24% from 20% in Q2 due to higher net income; expects tax rate for Q4 to be 24% and 30% for next fiscal year... NTAP +1.10 at 17.55 5:10PM Applied Materials (AMAT) 44.71 -0.97: -- Update -- On call, company says orders were up sequentially for the first time in four quarters...Orders should be 10%-15% sequentially higher in Q2 (Apr)....company says it is taking market share in 300mm and copper....stock at 44.94. 5:02PM Applied Materials (AMAT) 44.71 -0.97: -- Update -- On call, says it expects capital spending by customers do be down 25% in 2002. However, cap-ex for new technologies where AMAT is focused should be better than that. Currently, only 5% of industry semi capacity uses leading edge technology....stock at 44.80. 5:00PM Applied Materials (AMAT) 44.71 -0.97: -- Update -- On call, affirms Q2 (Apr) guidance. Mgmt says it expects sales of $1 bln "or slightly higher" and they expect to "remain profitable if sales targets are met." Multex consensus has sales of $1.025 bln and EPS of $0.02...stock at 44.62. 4:12PM Network Appliance tops estimates (NTAP) 16.45 -0.86: Reports Q3 (Jan) earnings of $0.04 per share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus of $0.02; revenues fell 31.2% year/year to $198.3 mln vs the $198.9 mln consensus; no guidance issued with report. 4:09PM Sycamore Ntwks tops by a penny (SCMR) 3.87 +0.03: Reports a Q2 pro forma loss of $0.11 a share, $0.01better than consensus, vs a yr-ago profit of $0.06. Rev fell 85.3% to $21.8 mln (consensus $21.2 mln). 4:07PM Applied Materials beats estimates (AMAT) 44.71 -0.97: -- Update -- Reports Q1 pro forma EPS of $0.02, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus of breakeven; revs came in at $1.0 bln, in-line with consensus. No formal guidance was given. 2:53PM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : Fresh session highs for the semi sector (SOX +0.9%) with NVLS +2.8%, TER +1.6%, AMD +1.4%, XLNX +1.3% pacing the way higher. While the sector gains have been dwarfed by the biotech group today, the SOX (at 556) index has crossed back above its 200 day simple ma (552). Key resistances are just ahead at 560 and 563. The first level is the 200 day exp ma which the SOX failed to close above on the initial rally off the Jan low with the latter level the highs from Jan 31 through Feb 04. finance.yahoo.com I upped my AMAT order Don. I'm in 1000 shares long at 45.01. Wish us big time luck tomorrow buddy! RtS