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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1936)	2/12/2002 7:58:20 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95965

Hi Don, Cohu had an increase in sales and backlog,with a questionable longer term forward vision- the stock already up 50% from trough values rose from high 18's to low 20.00 + not bad on a .06 loss for the quarter. The future looks much like maintenance(plus a little better) for those in command of their niche. It seems to me that a huge company like Amat may well have some weaker sectors that carry some overhead over to those niches that are in higher demand.It almost must be harder for an 800 pound Gorilla to remain profitable compared to a pure play small company that may be more concentrated in a sweet spot. Having said that, a maintenance position with profitability is better than "we don't know where or when the bottom is in". The next growth from longer term development, is more chip usage and replacement equipment coming in on top of new technology-perhaps shrinks also. During the turn in 98 terrible profitability was quickly forgotten with a growing backlog.It was not a robust growth at first - but as time progressed -so did order backlogs. One surprising key is: with a small increase in orders, a large increase in profits will be generated - These companies are all geared for running on fumes.When a gallon of orders hits - it creates horsepower fast. A 10-15 % rise in orders,if it evolves,will surprise with profits and that continues the momentum. I think at this stage the real question is how soon the backlogs can grow.The economy will dictate capital expansion. That's not an easy answer , in fact its real hard.Current news was enough last time to justify the rise off of trough evaluations ( October of 01 ). I think a surprise in profits will do a little more - but orders need to evolve or we'll be range bound in a long term consolidation. That will be better than the trail we've just been down- but certainly not a typical recovery. All in all not robust but getting healthier and the Rodeo may be a little slower this round.JMHO Bob