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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: limtex who wrote (47625)2/13/2002 9:28:32 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
been thinking about $ vs euro
I still think (despite slow European economy) that the USdollar will slide slowly versus the new euro currency
my view is not based upon comparative unemployment figures
it is based entirely on the NEED for the dollar to come down in order for the US economy to recover with the aid of exports

the world's major currencies are managed to a large degree
much more than we choose to admit
central banks realize that they can assist the world recovery by fostering a slight correction of dollar favoring the new euro
did you notice that immediately after the G7 meeting in Ottawa, the dollar slid down limit in Europe on Monday ???
watch this continue

concurrently, I expect ALL CURRENCIES to slide versus gold and silver
for several centuries, gold was the standard
since 1972 the dollar-dmark-jyen axis attempted to replace it in managed style
that effort is failing to produce world economic stability
failing with a big fat "F" grade

gold in 2001 gained 20% vs jyen
gained 15% vs euro
gained 5% vs dollar
gonna continue

I hear you about German job market
nobody can deny what you say
but a 7-year dollar rally since 1995 needs some correction
not a lot, but some
and the balance of import/export require it
we will see
in the meantime, watch gold gain on ALL CURRENCIES

the JPMorgan exposure suppressing gold price will only help

in my opinion, the US economic recovery is impossible without the dollar coming down slightly, impossible
it will involve a bitter pill, since US rates might rise, and US financial markets might suffer

/ jim