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To: Jordan Levitt who wrote (113106)	2/12/2002 9:46:49 PM
From: alanrs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

An investor in 1968, a market top, had to wait until 1983, fourteen years, to just break even after inflation. While I find articles like this mildly interesting in a general way, I find that they don't really address what a typical investors' returns would have been over a given time period because they presume a lump sum investment at a significant top or bottom. While there probably was some hapless soul who invested his/her entire life savings on the very day the market topped in 1929 and would have had to wait an inordinately long time to break even, it seems more likely to me that the vast majority of investors put money into the market over many years in varying amounts as they are able. I would be more interested (although not to the extent that I would actually do the research) in the returns of a hypothetical 35 year old investor who put money in from 1915-1929, perhaps at a rate of 10% of the average yearly income for those years. I wonder how long it took for that person to break even. Or maybe our hypothetical investor persisted in putting 10% in until 1940 (from the age of 35 to 60). This probably more accurately reflects how a person today might put money in the market. Just a thought. ARS Edit: In reading the last few posts, I have to chime in with my opinion that the efficient market theory seems to be nonsense.