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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (30969)	2/13/2002 12:04:48 AM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

I think there is something complex in the whole game that has been developing over the last 2 years and not just a simple series of 5 wave impulses and a-b-c corrections. The last 10 trading days exemplifies this as counts are difficult at best. Longer term, I don't favor any bull move and this is not just because of wave counts but because of a variety of economic factors that stand boldly in the way of any bull progress. Valuations are obvious. There's no way a new bull wave starts with these valuation in stocks which are now higher than at the market peak. All this new era stuff is crock and the same claims were made in each historic mania around the world for the last few hundred years. Production capacity is at 75%. There's no need to spend money to increase production when you can't even use the equipment that you have. Debt levels are enormous and this is the big one. Low interest rates are useless against this factor if you can't get new loans anyway. Spending won't increase either when you have to put money into paying off loans for expansion that have yet to recover costs. Throw in the slow growth and low capacity and there is hardly the making of a bull here. Nasdaq won't be seeing 5000 for probably a decade and even 3000 is years out. I still don't see signs of a bottoming economy and even when it does, it won't be coming out of the gate like a bat out of hell like everyone expects. The market will be moving back to 5% per year gains or less when it does start to recover.