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To: LLCF who wrote (150977)	2/13/2002 5:41:02 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

the last secular bear was 1965-1982, so unless he was born in the trading pits, he's rather confused. i'll say it again... 1929-1949...bear market 1949-1965...bull market 1965-1982...bear market 1982-2000...bull market 2000-????...bear market looking at the dj-30 chart on a quarterly, with overlying 50 and 200 period moving average onlays, mean growth extrapolates to the 4700-5000 area. mean growth is mean growth, it doesn't just go away. there is no new paradigm. there is no new economy. things are the same now as the were 100 years ago. the best one can hope for is a long period of lateral consolidation similar to the 1965-1982 secular bear. with the consumer and corporate debt that overhangs the economy, in addition to the money printing woes heralded by our pal al, that scenario seems pretty unlikely to me. when you add a nasdaq crash from 5000 to present levels, a slide of the broader market seems the next likely event. (~)^(~)