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To: Mike M who wrote (30986)	2/13/2002 9:14:28 AM
From: gsp6181	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Mike M, nice post and amen to your final sentence, neither a bull or bear be I but one who seeks to be consistently right in trading, which for me is not so easy, and looks for tools, skills, etc. that will get me there. Like this thread. Take care, George -- <Markets will almost certainly be both lower and higher from this point and all the pessimism in the world from the dark hole thinkers merely increases the likelihood of upside surprises.>

To: Mike M who wrote (30986)	2/13/2002 11:03:45 AM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Mike M..not a regular reader of this thread, but caught your post. One of the most astute and probably on-the-money that I've seen in a long time. Thanks for the food for thought.

To: Mike M who wrote (30986)	2/13/2002 2:13:12 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 209892

Thanks for the well thought out reply. My feelings also lie in between the "deflationary spiral and collapse of the Western banking system" crowd and the " mother of all bull markets is upon us" contingency. >>For every argument that the bears make regarding the expensive valuation of the market an equally compelling argument can be made regarding liquidity and limited alternative opportunities for capital investment<< The persistence of tech bulls and the violent snap back rallies are certainly a testament to the remaining liquidity that is looking for a home. They also demonstrate the confidence of investors in a >>innovative possibilities that abound in a country full of entrepreneurs<<. My reasons for being decidedly short the NDX are 1/2 technical and 1/2 fundamental. As I agree that the >>Markets will almost certainly be both lower and higher from this point <<, my plan is to attempt to catch the swings in sentiment that will hopefully correspond to the tops and bottoms of major trading ranges. At NDX 1640, I decided to go short and observe the sentiment and price action. Thus far I am encouraged and think that we will breach the Feb. low prior to making an attempt at the Dec. high. My bias is to the bearish side and I do think that the Sept. lows will be tested and possibly breached at some point in the next year or two. As far as the '29-32' Dow goes. The idea that just because we saw excess in tech stocks not seen since '29 we will unwind to the same degree and the same pattern is very interesing albeit not a probability. Still though, those charts ('29-32 Dow vs. '00-present compx) are eerily similar.