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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (151007)	2/13/2002 10:45:30 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

KIS, You got it wrong. Energy is excluded from retail sales when prices are down. However, it isn't ignored. It is counted in CPI when it is down. When prices are up, the CPI kicks energy out and returns it to retail sales. Gee, I wonder where the sleazy corporations got the idea that juggling "Pro Forma" is a reasonable way to operate? <g>

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (151007)	2/13/2002 10:46:41 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<I thought gas was considered energy and energy was excluded from retail sales figures?>> No, it's included...they report it with and without autos, though. Nonethless, a lot of pumping done on the back of that report, which (as you say) showed the jump in retail sales was entirely due to higher gas costs. Hmmm, yeah, the New Paradigm...higher energy costs are bullish!<VBG> Shorted a bit more KLAC into that pump...glad to get more @ 59.

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (151007)	2/13/2002 11:35:32 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

KIS, I THINK you're not quite right (though I haven't read the actual source document yet). Retail ex autos and ex gasoline (so something that approximates "spending at malls") was about +0.6, which is a pretty good result but certainly nothing to get all lathered up about. That said, you are right in your characterization. When retail sales are bad, but part of why they are bad is LOWER gas prices, then everybody says "well, excluding gas retail sales were actually really good". I don't hear anybody excluding gas this AM. Also, what happened to the argument that lower energy prices were going to provide a great savings to the consumer so that he could spend on other stuff. Guess we'll forget that argument for the time being as well. Retail sales were OK, not disastrous, not great. But with energy prices moving up, credit availability drying up, joblessness rising, and retailers discounting like crazy to get business, we're not too far from the ledge. Cheers