Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Israel who wrote (1949)	2/13/2002 5:12:42 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95966

In general, the semi equip stocks that I have tracked for the last 4+ years did not drop in their evaluation ratios(PSR. PBR, PE, etc) since March 2000, like they did from the fall of 1997 to the bottom in October 1998. I have not tried to make specific comparisons between the 2 "valleys", but IMO there is roughly a 2 to 1 difference between the 2 periods, ie, the comparison numbers are twice as high now(Sept, Oct 2001) as they were in October 1998. I don't know why this situation exists, but I think it has a little bit to do with really low evaluations in October 1998. I think the group was really severely punished on the downside at that point in time - just the opposite of what has occurred in the recent low period(Sept, Oct 2001)where the values have remained relatively high. As you point out, the KLAC numbers are very high now, but keep in mind one thing - as time goes forward, the sales and earnings numbers will be constantly raised as the recovery gets further and further along. This will do a lot in terms of bringing the very high evaluation ratios existing today down to a more realistic value. This can be seen in very preliminary terms by looking at the tables on earnings I post from time to time - presently the numbers are beginning to turn upward. As this trend continues, the evaluation ratios will begin to look a little better. Don