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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (60458)	2/13/2002 3:51:29 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT re next exogenous shock: As you say, your scenario is the "most optimistic". I'd add, it's also unlikely. You're an optimist, I'm a realist. The CIA has had 10+ years to find Hussein, and hasn't done it. And we haven't found the Taliban or Al Queda leadership, largely because we didn't put large numbers of our own troops on the ground, to do the job. Our proxies let them go (through action or inaction). re: New interim government broadly representing competing interests. Elections to follow in a year or so (in Iraq). Arabs haven't shown much interest in acting like Americans. IMO, the best we can realisticly hope for, is that the next thug in charge is a thug we can live with.