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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Charters who wrote (81994)	2/13/2002 5:32:04 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116791

I mentioned Yanacocha expansion as a stop gap measure to compensate for many small mine closures. Still an extra 600,000 ounces from an expansion is about what Cambior (15th largest producer at 615,000) or Goldcorp (16th at 607,000) produces. In a still highly fragmented gold industry, the expansion alone is like adding a decent size gold mining firm. The real long-term increases should be in Mali, Tanazania, and Argentina that produced about 60mt combined last year and should be good for 170mt+ by 2010. An extra 110mt might be more noticeable.

To: E. Charters who wrote (81994)	2/13/2002 6:09:42 PM
From: Ken Benes	Respond to of 116791

you are touching on one of the fundamental problems for the producers. Do they limit their future production and get a higher price for their current production. A higher price will also positively effect the valuation of their inground reserves, or do they go for broke and bring on whatever additional production is viable at 300+ gold. I believe the latter is a myopic view that will in effect reduce prices. As prices decline, the producers will be tempted to sell forward their production returning the industry to a sub 300 dollar price environment. I am not particularly sanquine that the producers are going to handle the current environment in a favorable manner for the industry. At some point, they are going to be subject to intense pressure by the bankers and their own innate dig we must mentality. Ken