Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brendan W who wrote (13928)	2/13/2002 8:35:59 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78673

Hi, Brendan Watt. Nice near tripling there on OI! I keep re-evaluating FAF, which I also hold. It's safe enough imo, if one assumes fairly competent and honest management - the business looks like it won't be obsoleted. Still, in past, the stock has sold for lower prices and at lower ratios of p/book, p/sales, p/earnings. I don't see what might propel the stock because title is such a big portion, and that venue of growth won't continue - as you noted with next year expected to have lower eps. I like that they are trying to expand from their title insurance business and become known for an expertise in handling business records. Acquiring American Driving Records, if they didn't overpay for it, was a good move in that direction, for example. I once worked for an auto insurance company: before a prospective policy could be approved (and maybe even with some renewals), the underwriters would get (buy) the department of motor vehicles history on the policyholder. This info. often came from 3rd parties (like Am. Driving's records, I am guessing.) My point: each inquiry is small bucks, but the number of inquiries to Am Driving's links/databases can be steady, if not large. (aside: And the possible or actual big-brother, Orwellian, aspect to this business is possibly a subject for another thread.) FAF also has a trust operation where they manage over $2Billion. Not much said about it in the annual report or that I can find in my references. Paul S.

To: Brendan W who wrote (13928)	2/19/2002 2:36:12 PM
From: Brendan W	Respond to of 78673

UST. I have a position in UST acquired in 1/2001 at $25.44 that I'm thinking about adding to. UST is a return on asset (high 20s, low 30s) and gross margin (79%) powerhouse. My interest is based partly on two WAGs ... that there litigation profile is improving and that the Conwood Antitrust verdict will be reversed. There are other "inflections" as well... (a) Revel, their smokeless, spitless poach will be released nationally this year... it would seem to have the potential of a mega-brand like Skoal, Copenhagen (b) cost of cigarette pack is now greater than a smokeless can, (c) smokeless will increasingly benefit from restrictions on smoking (d) the view among public health professionals that smokeless is less harmful than cigarettes may gain traction (as apparently it has in Sweden). My concern is that should UST fail to reverse the Conwood antitrust verdict that other antitrust claimants may use the Conwood verdict as precedent and successfully pursue other antitrust claims. I am an amateur on legal matters. Does anyone have any comment on this? I wouldn't be so bothered by the $1.1B judgment and $200,000 interest if I knew that closed the matter.

To: Brendan W who wrote (13928)	4/4/2002 5:09:07 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78673

Brendan Watt, okay, I'll try to slowly follow you out of Moody's (MCO). Sold 1/3 of my position today (also in a non-taxable account). While this stock might be a Buffett hold-forever, I find the price very expensive around current level. And, like you, I am concerned about legal attacks on companies with deep pockets who are associated with Enron. Sold out of remaining shares of NOR today. It seems to look like the company has had side business deals with its executives. Given Enron, that's enough, I am guessing, to have dropped this energy/utility stock to near annual lows. Enough to spook me too. Last time it dropped to lows, I was a buyer. Not this time. Nice dividend yield and potential stock gain from here for those with some guts and knowledge of the situation (That eliminates me!) who determine that it's a buy and are proved right. Freeing up some buying power by taking losses in sales of HLTH, and (sigh) my 1999 purchases of BMY (which have turned from gains to losses). Too many BMY management screwups this past year for me to maintain an overly large position in this company now. (For now, I've backed down to just a large position - large relative to the stock's % dollar value of the portfolio.) I've started a position in a geezer's stock, CWT. Price looks reasonable, long history of dividend increases, and div. yield now about 4.7%. In past couple of years there's been consolidation in the water utility business, so CWT might appeal to an acquirer. Stock now is suitable for a Mom's Account, imo. finance.yahoo.com Paul Senior