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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1956)	2/13/2002 8:47:13 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95976

Close Dow +125.93 at 9989.67, S&P +11.01 at 1118.51, Nasdaq +24.95 at 1859.16: The market certainly started the session off with a bang but the averages proved unable to build on the early run. The highs for the day were, for the most part, established in the first hour of action with limited trading ranges (60 points for the Dow and 18 points for the Nasdaq Composite) dominating thereafter. Helping to propel the market higher in the early going were Network Appliance (NTAP +17.5%) and Applied Materials (AMAT +7.2%). NTAP reported better than expected earnings and was upgraded by a number of firms. AMAT reported in line earnings and then reaffirmed for the next quarter. Also providing an important boost was the stronger than expected Retail Sales data for Jan. The headline number (-0.2%) was in line with expectations but this belied underlying strength as the ex-auto number rose 1.2%, much stronger than the 0.3% consensus and the highest reading since March 2000. This ex-auto number supports the view that consumer spending is rebounding, and helping to lead the economy out of recession. While the inability to build on the morning surge, despite the strong leadership from the semiconductor sector (particularly semi equip NVLS +6.6%, KLAC +6.7%, AMAT +7.2%, TER +7.8%) and the lower volume are disappointing, only limited pullbacks and the recent momentum suggest potential for additional progress over the near term. The market internals were bullish but not overwhelmingly so (A/D 5 to 4, up/down volume 2 to 1).DJTA -0.7%, DJUA +0.6%, DOT +1.4%, Nasdaq 100 +1.5%, Russell 2000 +0.9%, SOX +3.9%, XOI +0.4%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1983/1143, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2023/1479 3:35PM : More of the same for the market with tight range trading at moderately higher levels continuing to dominate. For the most part today the Dow has been limited to a 60 point range while the Nasdaq Composite has remained within an 18 point range. Clearly the gains are encouraging but the fact that 1) advances, in general, have been coming amid lighter volume than the declines over the last month, 2) that strong leadership from the semi sector (SOX +3.3%) has not had a more impressive overall market impact and 3) that investors, as measured by the Volatility Index (VIX), are very complacent are not necessarily the best building blocks for a strong run back to the recovery highs just yet. Improved volume and market internals would help bolster this outlook. SOX +3.6%, XOI +0.2%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1875/1222, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1838/1613 3:36PM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : -- Technical -- Group is trading towards its best levels of the session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index or SOX has cleared resistance at 563 which marks its highs going back to late January. Also note that the index has cleared its 200-day simple moving average at 551 earlier today -- its 50-day SMA at 548 is within one or two sessions of crossing the 200-day SMA. To the upside, look for additional overhead at 570 followed by more significant resistance at 584. To the downside look for notable support at 548/551 where its 50 and 200-day moving averages are converging. Nice SOX Chart: stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyymy[d20000601,20021231][pc20,50!d20,2!f][pc20!c50!i!d20,2!b100!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uo14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lc20] Stocks discussed by Briefing.com: finance.yahoo.com I think we are in complete agreement Don. We need a lower level here to get back in comfortably. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1956)	2/13/2002 9:21:03 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95976

Any increase in business and companies are now so efficient that they get explosive upside profit gains. Using GAP accounting, HWP increased its Q1 earnings by 240% over 2001 (just announced today). I think the prices of the stocks we follow reflect what they can earn given any reasonable upside. Most CEOs are cautious to keep expectations low and are happy to turn a few orders into huge earnings gains. Look at AMAT. earning 2 cents... Increase sales by $100M with their still decent margins and how much of that falls to the bottom line? Now look at how much that increases earnings of 2 cents... This bear market could be weeding out the excesses (and tben some) to make companies much more efficient. In the hay days, they'd hire just about anyone that was remotly qualified and they had to give their staff huge pay increases to keep them from going to the dot coms. Most companies are now ringing out that excess with layoffs and pay cuts. Overall, their actual business might be on a normal track before the bubble... anyway. I'm curious if the HP news is taken well or if they sell off the stock. Kirk out