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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank who wrote (6701)	2/13/2002 8:57:34 PM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206325

Current 3 day rally in Crude and OSX looks to be solely based on prospects of war. This can only result in the continuation of the down trend. Fundamentals are simply not there as much as many here want to say we are at a bottom, I just don't see it. In the past war threats would spike Crude 3-5 dollars, now we get .50-1. This again tells me OSX and Crude is artifically being held up. I would like just to say one reason why we cannot afford a war now w/ IRAQ.........DEPRESSION!! Just think what 30+ crude would do to our fragile economy.( yes war later when US is HEALTHY) So this makes me wonder where are we in the big picture of recovery of the cycle. I looked back at 98 and it looks as if we are right where the OSX was in feb-march of 98. then we had much talk of a bottom, and instead of telling you where it went, just look at some stocks from 3/98 to 10/98. That was the toughest time to be long and I was HEAVY, as well as doubled down that spring in the anticiapation of SUMMER DEMAND..it never came. Could we be setting up for another? Opinions and comments are much appreciated!

To: Frank who wrote (6701)	2/13/2002 10:54:09 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 206325

Keep the faith! A 100% gain from here over 18 months is not asking too much. As far as nukeplants I believe a good refueling outage is under 4 weeks. Dont forget nukes and coal plants have been running hard and have significant deferred maintenance. The recent draws and 12 months of production data are telling a bullish story for those willing to listen.

To: Frank who wrote (6701)	2/14/2002 1:10:00 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

Hi Frank, I haven't weighed in on this subject in a while but I thought I'd toss my hat in the ring, so to speak. According to the BHI website, during the previous couple of drilling cycles, worldwide rig counts peaked in Nov 90-Jan 91 at 2150-2200 rigs, and then in Nov 97-Jan 98 at about 2300 rigs. Each time they backed off. They were 'relatively stable' from 1992 through 1995 before ramping up substantially in 1996 and 1997 before peaking in the winter of 97/98. The sustained rig count over 2100 lasted for 13 months before the "crash of 98", when the OSX and the patch got crushed and finally bottomed in March of 1999. 1998 and early 1999 were very tough on the patch investors, as many here remember all too well. During 2000 and 2001 we had another 13 months where the rig count was sustained over 2100, inviting another "crash of 2002" in my opinion. The key differences this time around have been the global political turmoil-which has put a solid floor under crude, and the fact that OPEC/NOPEC has done a much better job of responding to reduced demand by lowering production. I believe these 2 factors are only postponing the inevitable, since at last release, the worldwide rig count was still over 2000. The US rig count didn't start dropping substantially until Sept 2001 during this cycle and I'm concerned that it still has more to drop before the bottom is seen. While I agree with you that time is on our side, what concerns me greatly is that I don't want to hold the drillers or the OS companies if we are still on the way down. I can easily see a scenario play out where we drift lower for another 5 to 13 months before we reach another major washout in both NG and Crude commodity prices. If this is the case, I'll be damned if I ride this final wave down. While I can build a case to be bullish, I find it harder to justify than the above bearish possibility because the bullish case depends on too many circumstances lining up at the right time-war, weather, economic activity, OPEC, or other 'relatively' uncontrollable and unpredictable factors.