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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjstingray who wrote (30071)	2/13/2002 10:32:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

jj - I concur that those puts are indeed bullish. I do not know how to resolve that anomoly, with VIX VXN and chips being where they are and I have posted on that a couple times in the past few days. Zeev is calling for a drop and I am not sure we get one. IF we get that drop, then I believe we get a very sharp rebound to wipe out all the March puts. People keep referring to PUT/Call ratio on a daily basis. Totally meaningless this close to expiry, if everyone has been buying March or June puts. Right NOW those March puts are meanginless. March and June will take care of themselves in march and june. If we have panic, then delta hedging will ensure one powerfull downdraft as well as snapback. I see no catalyst for that downdraft, but all those puts sure gives me one for the upside. When push come to shove and if we just chop lower and lower around here without any panic, they will gap us up every day for 8 days if they have to, to get us to March Max pain. The real fun would come if there is some sort of disaster AFTER they chop us lower for the next two weeks. Things could get very very ugly due to delta hedging. I think that is a low probability event, however. M