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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (10375)	2/14/2002 9:41:18 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

You bring up some valid points: I am not disputing that Rydex is record bearish and has been so for many weeks. Rydex is not acting like it ever has before. Normally, on a good rise, we see bears pull out of bear funds, yet, since the Sep lows we have them piling in week after week. However, to try and make analysis looking at outflows vs inflows in Bull/Bear Funds after a day like yesterday on a strong up day is inane. The Bear Funds remain very high and TA levels have not been depleted relative to other past rallies. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT. Sometimes looking thru the forest without observing slight detection of the trees can get one bogged down in analysis paralysis. It is why I POSITION Trade vs DAY Trade, although when I am in a zone I will move in and out pretty aggressively from time to time but it is the exception rather than the rule. I would think if we analyzed any market methodology, like E-Waves or Cycles, you will be able to find multiple flaws just the same. For example, for me E-waves are a waste of time on a day in day out basis because you spend most of your time trying to figure out every wiggle or what wave it is and you ONLY KNOW and justify your analysis only AFTER the wave is complete and the market is significantly lower or higher. It is the equivalent of an ARMCHAIR QUARTERBACK looking at the market in retrospection after it has already occurred. However, I find E-waves more useful in trends as it relates to fibonnaci levels and extremely important from top to bottom of short intermediate and long term analysis but with the bigger picture in mind. Ewave analysis is certainly not the holy grail. If it was, the likes of Prechter who wrote the book would have never missed the 7,000 + point advance in the greatest Bull market of all time. All we can do as traders or investors is make our best educated analysis; mine is sentiment and technical analysis and which at the end of the day the only final arbiter that really matters is Mr. Market because Mr. Market is ALWAYS correct. Best Regards, J.T..