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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: brightness00 who wrote (30216)2/14/2002 5:56:47 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99280
 
I get 37 by looking at the option chain.
I call it the eyeball method.
I think it is more often correct.
One can discard way out of the way nonsense and concentrate on the possible.

This is why I say 37 or 37+

QQQ 34 calls 2k
QQQ 34 puts 32k
QQQ 35 calls 30k
QQQ 35 puts 59k
QQQ 36 calls 40k
QQQ 36 puts 38k
QQQ 37 calls 53k
QQQ 37 puts 52k
QQQ 38 calls 56k
QQQ 38 puts 47k
QQQ 39 calls 56k
QQQ 39 puts 29k
QQQ 40 calls 57K
QQQ 40 puts 37K

This data changes every day so I can only report on what I see now. Only a small difference between 37 and 38
At 37 vs 38 an extra 47k puts would be in the money
at 38 vs 37 an extra 53k calls would be in the money

Otherwise there is little difference between the two.
Call it fine tuning or what, that is why I said 37 1/2 or 37+

At 40 there would be an extra 112K calls in the money
vs 38 but only 76k extra puts expired. Thus there appeared to be a cap on the high side somewhere above 38, perhaps 39.
There was ac clear cap on the downside at 35. 37 is conviently in the middle of those.

M