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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (10409)	2/15/2002 12:35:20 AM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

From what I see, through the 8 month stretch from end of Feb 99 to end of Oct 99 the ratio actually made 3 higher highs even while the NDX went up the whole period. These persistently wrong bets of the shorts finally led to the parabolic liftoff when they sold out and went bullish. Then we get sort of the reverse behavior during the bear market.. you can see the ratio stayed persistently low and the bettors overly bullish the whole way until at least April 2001 when it finally started to get more normal as more and more people got bearish. At this point (2002) we seem to have gone so far off the bearish scale (this latest set of ratios being the 3rd higher high since April 2001) that it seems to be pointing to something major (as you noticed :-). It very well might be the end of the bear market if we can eke out higher highs than January on the indexes?