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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (22211)	2/15/2002 10:56:38 AM
From: vampire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

true...but that's not the point...my point is that Bob has no reason for buying here - i dont see it as support...he's basically just taking a flyer because it's down so much - if it goes up from here...great, but his "methodology" is based on luck more than anything OT - true...they COULD win it all but they still need a lot to go right

To: michael97123 who wrote (22211)	2/15/2002 11:21:44 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Can't compare JDSU and AMAT. We have 25+ years of semi-equip and semi sales history and it is a complete industry with fairly well defined patterns and momentum. JDSU cobbled itself together during a "bubble." The worst effect of the bubble is the 1.34B shares. In my mind, that means annual sales of $1.34B for each $6 of share price. Since I only have a "bubble" track record and industry "experts" are all over the spectrum on fiber optic capacity and % utilization, I am reluctant to invest without some handle on potential future sales levels. It is not a matter of $3 or $5 dollars. Buying cheap is only half the battle. Bob's 3 bagger or other estimates of company growth and price appreciation is the other. From time to time, I have raised the issue of revenue. I have not been able to elicit a reasoned opinion or a reference to industry research. I will check Merrill Lynch and report back!