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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (15062)	2/15/2002 11:46:39 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

LOL, I dont' consider 'death' in a negative way... from death comes new life to be sure. :) A massive die off creates incredible and abundant opportunity. DAK

To: TobagoJack who wrote (15062)	2/15/2002 1:28:36 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 74559

U.S. shares get tech-induced decline By Julie Rannazzisi NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A drop in shares of IBM pushed the Dow industrials under the 10,000 level Friday and hamstrung the hardware sector. A decline in a closely monitored sentiment indicator also ruffled feathers on Wall Street, stoking worries of a derailment in the economic recovery. The Michigan consumer sentiment index for mid-February registered its first decline since September, falling to 90.9 from January's 93. Further, the expectations index fell to 86.8 from the previous 91.3. Refuting theories of a "double-dip" recession, Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said the drop in the expectations component was merely a lagged response to softness in the stock market through January -- particularly the Nasdaq -- which is by far the most powerful factor affecting expectations. The economist maintained that expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were thus vulnerable to a correction. So basically market movements create expectations? People need to look at the stock market to formulate their sentiment? Isn't this analysis flawed from the get-go? When the current sentiment component was stagnant the last few months and expectations component was rising, Wall St cheered it with bravado...Now that expectations fall, it's not relevant? Kind of like the retail numbers ex-autos. When it's convenient to talk about all the people buying cars, helping the manufacturing base, and pushing us out of recession, we include it in the figures. But when the channel stuffing is over, we take it out. This passes as economic theory? Which comes first the chicken or the egg?