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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (18938)	2/15/2002 11:20:26 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Also, Vietnam style opposition only started some years after we went into Vietnam. The campaign against Iraq would not take years -- it's utterly lopsided from a military point of view. And Saddam certainly does not have widespread popular support, nor funding from an outside superpower, nor any jungles to hide in. I grant you the speed argument but everything is speedier now with communications such as it is. I don't think opposition would take any great time either. Neither of us, of course, have any data here. Would be interesting to see what's out there. My guess is everyone's polling these issues right now; that nothing will happen before the 02 elections; and once they are past, it will be too close to the 04 elections. It's also important that Bush II lacks the legitimacy as well. A quickly unpopular war would shoot the Florida and the Supreme Court questions right into prime time media so fast we would all get dizzy. No, strange, the more I type back and forth with you, the stronger I feel that the Bushies will conclude it's politically not possible and, should they not (and given their arrogance they well could do so), it will pretty much end his presidency. Hmm, that makes it look as if it's the arrogance against the political savvy question. Bush has surprised me on this latter score. Not quite as good as Clinton but not shabby. That's another reason to think he will do something well short of an invasion. I see your arguments about the importance of doing something about Iraq and was quite impressed with Pollack's arguments but I don't see those being sufficient to mobilize public opinion. John