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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/15/2002 11:11:00 PM
From: jjstingray	Respond to of 99280

Mish, excellent post. My thinking is this. We fiddle around up here above 1800 until we breach and head down. We head down hard initially to get more put buyers into the mix. At what point, who knows, like you said. Once they have a very large number of put buyers locked in, we rally hard, just like this week. This way, they can kill the shorts with a nice two or three day strong rally. What will spark it, hard to say, but it will be something.

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 1:01:45 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Great analysis, Mish. I know my speculative stock for the bottom - AVCI at 1.35 for a clean double. Junk runs on these rises. I agree what we saw today was delta hedging. They took this down so fast it was hard to keep from laughing. I expect a bit of a relief rally on Tuesday if we don't get any exogenuous event over the weekend. However, the trend is down and 1772 is the first test. Now that BRCD is cooked (I didn't really expect it to drop so fast) maybe QCOM could be the next goose on this drop. That TRINQ today was amazing. The put / call is back up to nosebleed territory. I agree that the Tic is going to be a very important factor, but the tic.n almost did a +1000 today when the Nas was down big. Go figure. The only time the put/call was this high for this long was September. Either we're testing the lows here, or we're going to get a very solid intermediate local bottom out of this. The past 2-years, we've hit new lows in 1-3 months 80% of the time the 20-day SMA has crossed over the 50-day SMA from above. That event happened a couple weeks ago. Is it going to happen, or is this going to be one of the exceptions? I actually believe it may be an exception.

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 3:20:58 AM
From: I. N. Vester	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Mish, very interesting post. Will be paying more attention to the OI vs the naz action going forward. Let's see if this works itself out in undercurrents or in the very visible thrashing churning tsunamis you are suggesting!

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 6:32:08 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

i have rarely seen J.T. so bullish as his RYDEX contrarian indicators are super bullish,and he is both long NDX and SPX(and has been for awhile).But i keep pondering the argument Richard Russell has been pointing out ,in bear markets,the bears are right more than the bulls and in bull markets the bulls are right more than the bears.max

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 6:35:31 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I have no idea what will spark a rally. I am pretty sure it will happen. I do not know if it is at 1720, 1680, 1749 or 1600 If it does NOT come the bottom will simply fall out and we will blow thru the Sept "bottom" like it was melted butter My guess is the latter. This is a house of cards. There are a lot of stocks at 52 week lows. Look at the telecoms. The only thing holding up this market is the semis. When everyone realizes there is going to be no recovery this year, it will be like yelling fire in a crowded theatre. Everyone will want out. Credit is starting to be a problem. My cash isn't now just in money markets, it's in treasuries. At some point this is going to be very ugly. ork

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 6:40:20 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

<<Why the rally call? It is dammed simple. There simply are too many puts in the money in March That is it. No more No less. There is no more to this market, at this point in time, than criminal option acivity IMHO.>> as long as volume is sluggish they can move this around at will,yes. If sell-side volume builds,they lose control in my opinion.

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 8:12:49 AM
From: exp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Mish: Excellent analysis. The put buyers seem to be betting on a bottom in the 33-37 QQQ range corresponding to the 1650-1850 NAZ range. Most believe the intermediate bottom will occur in the 1650-1770 NAZ range (33-35 QQQ) and it won't take longer than 2-3 weeks to get there. By early March, all indicators should be aligned for a strong rally. Reason for a rally? None is needed except for VIX/VXN indicating sufficient fear IMO.

To: mishedlo who wrote (30495)	2/16/2002 12:15:03 PM
From: gfs_1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Put/Call Bullish Ratio:1.15 x Volatility Bearish 24 I was looking some Volatility low x Put/Call ratio On 07/16/99 Volat= 17.70 P/C = 0,46 Both bearish On 08/28/00 Volat= 18.13 P/C = 0,50 Both bearish On 7/02/01 Volat = 20 P/C = .62 Both Bearish Last friday was Options day like 07/16/99. Next week we could see Volatility Index at 30's and P/C around .90 before a major rally or Volatility around 20's and P/C around 0,50 before a real sell. GFS