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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Krupa who wrote (8816)	2/16/2002 12:13:55 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Respond to of 14101

Joe, Thanks for that marketing perspective - very helpful! MB

To: Joe Krupa who wrote (8816)	2/16/2002 3:27:12 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Respond to of 14101

Hi Joe, Boy you can almost feel the positive energy coming up through the keyboard. First of all J&J has reorganized. There is no more McNeil Healthcare although there is now a McNeil Healthcare Canada. If you follow the product allignment back then to now you see some new logical aggregations of like product groupings. From that I suspect we will be dealing with Ortho-McNeil as the actual partner in the current J&J structure. I don't see that as a material issue. I suspect the staff on those products went with the re-org. Thats right. I said my estimates are the minimum J&J would put on the table in getting board approval would be something in the $300 million range within 2 years of launch and a double digit growth profile. While I didn't mention this in that post, part of the business case proposition would necessarily include the cannibalisation of current Tylenol sales. Don't forget also internal allocation considerations in deciding whether to go ahead with a business case. I did this homework to give me an estimate of whether J&J needs probably exceed DMX needs or not for an EPS consideration. I'm satisfied with the answers I get. J&J business proposition: Get 3% of NSAID market in 2 years Sales 240 DMX 60 S&M 30 Cannibal sales 12 Investment over 2 years 10 Gross contribution 128 Attributed overhead ? Dimethaid equivelant: "royalties" 60*1.6=96 COS 32 Gross cont 64 Expenses 17 NPBT 47 Tax 8 (average2 yrs net of loss c/fwd) NP 39 EPS .81 I assess both will do better than this. I see US launch late this year as close to certain with a spike to a new high somewhere in 2002 and a solidification into the $25+ range somewhere in 2004 strictly Pennsaid. On decent probability I see a break into the $20+ Cdn range subject to exposure in the US, NASDAQ, and WF10 in 2002; but I would place that around the 25% range. Part of solidification for me will be watching the lows set over the next 12 months and their pattern (generally higher lows). I had expected to do much better in Europe and be in Canada by now - but that's why I harped and harped 2 years ago on finding the intersection between minimum needs and maximum probability in finding the long term stocks. I also believe strongly the non-arthritic pain sales will be very material (sports/injuries). Well, on we go. Pennsaid works and works well! Wolf

To: Joe Krupa who wrote (8816)	2/16/2002 3:44:21 PM
From: Cal Gary	Respond to of 14101

Joe, thanks for the marketing lesson and brand ranking. in response to some who doubt the ability of the US partner to effectively market a topical in a country of pill poppers. I knew in the back of my mind, but it didn't click until responding to a PM. My wife has 'hundreds' of tubes of something or other scattered throughout the house. Mainly hand and face cremes. Some antibiotic stuff. The convenience I suppose is that there are several tubes strategically placed in different rooms. When I query her about a new tube in another color, she can rattle off what its for, how it ranks with other similar potions, the texture, the cost effectiveness, brand name, etc. Another example, when I get a sports injury, I rub the spot. I use the traditional bulky cold and heat packs. Then I rub it some more. If it hurts, I rub. <g> I do use topical chinese stinky ointments (whenever I can get my hands on good stuff, something along the lines of a good brand) for bad strains. But understand the solvents used may include turpentine, linseed oils, etc. Scary, hey russett. I have taken Ibuprophen for serious muscle or joint inflamation on a few occasions. Knowledge of NSAID side effects do bother me, but I know sports related injuries are mostly temporary. Knock on wooooood. Think about chronic pain some OA suffers face daily. Or the blown knees or elbows that some athletes suffer, ie Bobby Orr. On the surface, the pill fits the convenience profile mentality of our society. This may turn out, I HOPE, to be just a myth. JNJ Watch! (not as sexy as Baywatch on the BAY thread)