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To: willcousa who wrote (12144)2/16/2002 2:37:58 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Respond to of 12823
 
Hi willcousa,

Re: someone later picks up the excess capacity for a song, can undercut the market on lease rates, waits for the next boom

Righto, Sam Zell did it in real estate in the Eighties. Today, Carl Icahn is back in the hunt.

And the big vulture funds like Prometheus and Carlyle are primed to pick up dramatically cheap assets. Interesting to watch to cycle.

For us retail investor types, our best hope is probably to pick up distressed bonds, much as was the case with railroad paper in the 1950's. I've been toying with the notion that GX bonds at 4 1/4 cents might make for an explosive return should they be deferred rather than defaulted.

-Ray