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To: waverider who wrote (113482)	2/16/2002 8:30:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

WR, The GSM [Groupe Speciale Mobile] old-fashioned voice and SMS industry is mature. It has had its day. AT&T will not have fun when Verizon and Sprint are selling 1xRTT and Leap is leaping around with low-priced cyberspace as well as low-priced voice. It's tough to take AT&T seriously. Many companies have backed the wrong horse. They are one. W-CDMA was supposed to be now selling in Europe [in the high chip rate, asynchronous mode]. It isn't. It won't be for a long time [unless it turns more into cdma2000]. cdma2000 has millions of users and it is obviously doing a great job. People love it! You are right that the GSM Gang of neighbourhood bullies managed to lie their way through the late 1990s and pull the wool over a lot of eyes. But people can see a bit more clearly now, though there is still a lot of flim-flam. GPRS isn't going very well so the trajectory to 3G via GSM GPRS EDGE WCDMA is looking rather jaundiced compared with the cdmaOne/1xRTT/1xEV-DV/cdma2000 pathway which is going well with no great glitches. You are also right that marketing inertia has kept GSM going. I really thought that GSM would be selling less per month than CDMA by now. But the CDMA marketers haven't used their capacity advantage [other than Leap] to confront and defeat competing technologies. But the pressure is coming on and capacity will count as price and technology wars increase. GSM/TDMA is a dead duck in capacity compared with 1xRTT [and 1xEV-DO]. Mq