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To: Clappy who wrote (31403)	2/16/2002 4:09:37 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

clapton, I had read that insight before but it's good to be reminded of it from time to time. I thought the more telling part of the article was this: "Most of the time the COT reports do not provide any information that helps us with our forecasts since there is no telling how net-long or net-short the commercials will become before a trend change occurs. As illustrated by the above example of the gold market in 1993, the commercials can remain on the wrong side of the market for an inordinately-long time." Many on the board look at COT reports to see what the supposedly "smart money" is doing, and we look at P/C ratios, investor sentiment indices, and other contrarian indicators to try to see where the supposedly "not-so-smart" money is going, but the bottom line is that unfortunately there's no easy way to look at all of this data to help us discern market direction as it's usually a combination of indicators (and frequently not the same ones) that signal important turns in the market. Until I can find a crystal ball that works well, though, I guess I'll have to look at all of this same stuff everybody else does. <g>