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To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)	2/16/2002 5:44:50 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Ooof. now I'm scared! -NG-

To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)	2/16/2002 6:09:00 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

your signals are canceling each other out. the AAII is high and the rydex bear fund is high. while that doesn't give a direction, it does distinctly argue against any type of tank. i've been playing the range which has been successful. pretty soon we'll get to the bottom, probably establish a new low, and be set to rally again. the thing is, the next rally would arrive in a distinctly bullish seasonal period...namely march. this is the basis of my supposition that the market will break the downtrend in the next rally. of course that, imo, will be the ultimate fakeout, setting up a classic decline through the late spring and entire summer into september. this not only corresponds to extremely bearish seasonality, but also will occur during a time past any type of inventory upramp. corporate america will have to prove the economy is back at the worst period for equities. i don't think they will be successful. that's how i'm playing, subject to change of course if other event intervene.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)	2/16/2002 8:02:06 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 209892

Six signals seems like far too small a sample to establish a reliable indicator. Even within a window that's quite narrow relative to the number of signals generated, the chart itself suggests a possible shift in the baseline, with the most recent "trade" only just slightly profitable by now, and only after an "unusual" extended drawdown. In other words, how well the "system" (i.e., buy/sell at indicated percentage ratios) would perform in something other than a major bull run or a major collapse looks completely uncertain.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)	2/16/2002 9:33:45 PM
From: whydididothat	Respond to of 209892

Cool chart. Wonder where that red line will end up when it's all over. Even at its current extreme, only 19% of Rydex OTC assets are in the short fund. Wonder what's up with the other 81% long. Must be bargain hunters. -g

To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)	2/16/2002 9:41:34 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

Nice charts, John Looks like the Rydex guys are running for the hills. Allan mentioned a few weeks ago that the Rydex traders appear to smarter money, moreso than many think apparently.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (31406)	2/16/2002 11:06:42 PM
From: whydididothat	Respond to of 209892

Here's another cool one: vtoreport.com