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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (10515)	2/16/2002 4:58:22 PM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Regarding the talk a few days back about the "low" VIX readings. I went back just now and looked at what the VIX looked like around Nov 1st 98 and 99 (both right after the Rydex ratio had peaked, and right as the market was starting to make a higher high), and in both cases it was at roughly the same point we are at recently. In 98 it looks like it was around 25 (and eventually made two lower lows well below 22.5), and in 99 it was around 22.5 (and also went below that afterwards). So I don't see any disconfirmation of the idea that we might be about to rally here.

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (10515)	2/16/2002 7:07:36 PM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Funds vs NDX how does that compare for say 1990-2002? Anyone have a chart for a longer term comparison. It certainly looks interesting from a 2 year standpoint.

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (10515)	2/16/2002 7:29:24 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Rob, The chart shows an undeniable inverse correlation between the Rydex assets ratio and the NDX, but correlations do not always reveal cause and effect. Especially on the time frame of that chart, it is impossible to tell if the rise in bullish sentiment is contributing to the reversals, or simply following the accelerating declines. What this chart could be showing is nothing more than a Rydex short squeeze induced by the "V" reversals. The little reversal of last week does not appear to have generated a significant shift in sentiment, suggesting that perhaps the Rydex ratio is lagging, being the "effect" rather than the "cause". Dan