Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (15097)	2/16/2002 5:49:31 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I concur with the mathematics all the way. Except it would make more sense to go further back historically than just 95. The thirties would be fine and if there's some way to go back into the 19th century, the model gets even better - what about some more data going back to 1796... Point being, even if the coin flips 50/50 on average, I may hit a run of 30 heads next. Same probability as 101010101... Still (g) the market is overpriced, even if not for historical reasons. Plus, I'm only human; dj