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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (28103)	2/17/2002 2:31:53 PM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio This is just a little more than "negative press" Nextel bond buyers effectively can purchase the company for less than four times projected 2002 EBIDTA. Here's why: With its bonds trading for less than 70 cents on the dollar, the debt market effectively is saying Nextel is worth under $10 billion ($13 billion times 0.70) with no value left for shareholders. (The figures I have show total debt @17 billion, adding in the obligations of their international subsidiaries, making a much bigger crater for shareholders) Nextel, Sprint PCS and AT&T Wireless all are expected to have negative cash flow -- about $2 billion this year for AT&T Wireless and Sprint PCS, and $1.3 billion for Nextel -- in part because of high capital expenditures to expand and maintain their networks. Their cash flow is unlikely to turn positive until 2004, or 2003 at the earliest. All the likely scenarios leave Nextel, with its proprietary technology and leveraged balance sheet, out in the cold. I remember reading just about the same thing about Boston Market...except I owned Boston Market long. NXTL I AM short....how's that for revenge?! Another one to watch for some trades over the week: SKO: Has moved nicely for a solid support spot of 10 and looking at some resistance. Short and long term charts are entering the way overbought area and some profit taking is due. Short sell for the strong of heart and fast of finger anywhere above 13 to 15...a break over 15, cover and take the loss. If it breaks under 13, cover at 10 and buy it back long to mid 12 again. As I said this is for the fast and brave with free money to play with, not the rent or the IRA or the college for your kids. Ken