Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (60670)	2/16/2002 8:55:08 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"February outlook: where IC markets are headed" By Robert Henkel Semiconductor Business News (02/15/02 10:48 a.m. EST) siliconstrategies.com This is a long article which includes a number of short topics - here's one interesting snip: ___________________________________________________ “Danger! Foundry capacity to outpace even growing market” The silicon foundry market is being touted now as one of the fastest growing, global chip segments over the next five years. And I tend to agree with those forecasts. However, something that some of us may be forgetting is that supply could end up growing much faster than even this accelerating demand. Not Semico Research, which now expects a massive build-up of fab capacity to upset the delicate supply/demand balance in this market. As a result, this Phoenix market researcher predicts that global foundry capacity will exceed overall wafer demand "at least until 2006." And it will be by a "significant margin," the research firm says. For the first time ever, the foundry business will experience a prolonged period of excess capacity on average over the next five years, warns Semico analyst Joanne Itow. "I wouldn't call it a 'capacity glut,'" says Itow, "but the supply side is keeping up with demand in the foundry business. I don't see a major shortage of in terms of capacity for awhile." That could be hard on profit margins. But typically, the older-generation and mature technologies will have the most over capacity, while foundry capacity will remain tight for leading-edge processes, she says. "There's a lot of demand for wafers at 0.18-micron and smaller right now," Itow says. "The demand has accelerated towards the leading-edge technologies, but we can't see much demand for the older technologies." What's turned the foundry supply/demand picture upside down is the massive build-up of fabs by both the start ups and the established players. Foundries currently are building 200- and 300-mm wafer fabs at an alarming rate. While this could have a major impact on profits, the foundry business is still expected to grow rapidly this year. Itow figures it could grow by as much as 35-to-40% this year. ___________________________________________________ AdvocateDevil