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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (30569)	2/16/2002 11:25:56 PM
From: Ibexx	Respond to of 99280

RE. BRCD. The following comments are taken from a private investment adviser I subscribe to: "2/15/02: BRCD shows a bearish Triple Bottom Breakdown with large volume. The optimal short level is 31.76 with a stop loss cover at 32.18 In the past 6 months, BRCD is in a trading range with an average daily volume of 13.64 million shares. It is a very liquid stock with a daily volatility of 6.1%, an excellent instrument for trading. Recently it was turning down. Our Technical Indicator based opinion for BRCD is neutral. (Check with Live Picks to see if BRCD now shows any meaningful stock pattern.) BRCD has a Market Beta of 2.29. Each 100 shares of BRCD has a Value-At-Risk (VAR) of $1290." Ibexx (no position long or short) PS: As always, please read at your risk.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (30569)	2/16/2002 11:47:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Not exactly sure I would call a "turn" on BRCD the same a delta hedging. Actually, I think the puts and calls at strike 35 may have kept it artificially propped up. Deltal Hedging MAY have intensified the effect but I am unsure. Perhaps, however, we just saw was just a plain reversal. I am incline to believe the powers that be already knew what BRCD earning's were, and had already shorted it. QCOM OTOH could be delta hedging but I am unsure. NVDA is a more interesting story. There were a relatively large nuumber of puts on it (for such a thin stock). That premarket ramp up on Friday just so they could unload it close to 60 was disgusting. What about IBM, huge drop on it? I think IBM and NVDA might be better examples, although a part of me thinks the drop on NVDA might have been worse had there not been the urgency to prop that sucker back up nearly to 60 before the bottom fell out. Perhaps had it not been options expiry we would not have seen that morning rap at all. All of this is very hard to say. If there were 50K puts on BRCD or some other huge number, then I would have said yes, at the actual number, I am not sure. Of the above, I think IBM surprise on options expiry might have been the biggest one. M

To: ajtj99 who wrote (30569)	2/17/2002 5:46:36 PM
From: I. N. Vester	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

I think 35 was BRCD max pain, and when it started sinking, the delta hedging certainly added to selling pressure. But I would not ignore the BRCD earnings and CC. Most of the analysts were on record as having them exceed their numbers for the Q and the CEO is well known for being one of the most eloquent pumpers. I think there was a reasonable chance for the stock to go higher. In fact, i'm sure it would have had they beat the number as was rumoured. Even as it was, the am after the call it still hit 34 even after trading 1.5-2 lower in AH and subsequently dropping like a stone. It's quite possible imo, that they could have even ended the week near 35 if they had met expectations and promised the sky going forward. But now the 'shine' is off. CEO was not too upbeat and with a 70 PE, they really needed to keep up the appearance of being able to hit on all cylinders in order to keep their place as a large cap tech stock of choice with the fund managers. I look forward to seeing how quickly and how far it drops. The next question for me is, can it rebound from the upper or mid 20's to get back to 32 or above on the next upswing? I guess that depends on how heavily it is sold and whether it breaks down from the 27 area or finds good support there, as well as how the Naz itself fairs. Any thoughts? Don't you think that it should at least get a momentary bounce back to the bottom of the breakdown area, say 31-32?