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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (1722)	2/17/2002 9:28:20 AM
From: William Partmann	Respond to of 10345

Thanks Jon, that took no small amount of time to composed. Bill

To: Robohogs who wrote (1722)	2/17/2002 12:32:14 PM
From: Jim@Inland	Respond to of 10345

<<Valuation work on this one is almost impossible>> Yes but nice try anyway, thanks Jim

To: Robohogs who wrote (1722)	2/18/2002 10:51:19 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10345

Jon, I think (i.e. hope) that it is far too early to more or less write off Myobloc as insignificant. The Economist carries the following story on Botox in its current issue. Smooth face, big Botox Feb 14th 2002 \| NEW YORK From The Economist print edition A poison turned cosmetic treatment that might be the next blockbuster A PROCEDURE that uses poison to paralyse facial muscles sounds more like a torture than a beauty treatment. But botulinum toxin A (Botox for short), a biological weapon, is about to get its first official seal of approval from America's Food and Drug Administration (FDA ) as a safe way to get rid of wrinkles. Approval, likely next month, will enable Botox's maker, Allergan, which is based in California, to advertise its cosmetic benefits direct to doctors and consumers in America, and could turn Botox into a billion-dollar lifestyle drug to rival Viagra and Prilosec. When injected in diluted form, Botox relaxes muscle movements that cause twitches and stuttering as well as those distressing wrinkles. At $300-1,000 a pop, the injections are not cheap. Nor is the anti-wrinkling permanent: it wears off within six months. And too much in the wrong places can wipe out all facial expression. But unlike skin creams (a $32 billion industry likened to “snake-oil hope in a jar”), Botox injections produce results within minutes. “This is as close as we have come to an ideal treatment,” says Alan Matarasso, a respected New York plastic surgeon who does up to 30 Botox procedures a day. None of this is lost on the beauty industry, which sees erasing signs of ageing as the holy grail. Already used for wrinkles for a decade (without FDA approval), Botox is the fastest-growing, most popular cosmetic medical procedure in America. It was used to smooth more than 1m faces in 2000. Already all the rage among celebrities and well-heeled city dwellers, Botox could now appeal to a broader market. Because Allergan is not allowed to advertise Botox for cosmetic use without FDA approval, many doctors outside big cities do not know about it, says Dr Matarasso. Nor do their female patients. Not that Botox is of strictly feminine interest: men are already trying it for furrowed brows. Robert Bernard, vice-president of the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, says that in the softer, post-September 11th era, businessmen tell him they “don't want to look cross in board meetings”. As more doctors learn about Botox, they are likely to find its profit margins alluring: a $400 vial can yield over $1,600 in treatment fees. Analysts reckon that Allergan's annual sales of Botox, worth $310m last year, could reach $1 billion—the level at which a drug is considered a blockbuster—by 2006. Some will doubtless tut about the vanity of it all. But one woman's meat is clearly also her poison. Now, Botox and Myobloc seem more or less to be the "same thing". Or at least they produce the same results. shorelaser.com So, if Botox is doing abt. 300 mUSD in revenues and might be on its way to the first Billion, it doesn't seem reasonable to assume that Myobloc will remain at a stable 25 mUSD without much further growth. No, I am not suggesting that you change your calculation. I just wanted to point out one of the "safety margins". Ice Edit: Now, the 6 weeks against 3 months effectiveness of the two treatments might of course favor Botox over Myobloc.

To: Robohogs who wrote (1722)	2/19/2002 10:05:07 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10345

JR Great work. Thanks for posting your valuation. Shouldn't the Break up II reflect debt? 4. Breakup Analysis II Antegren $1 B - $2 B Drug Delivery $2 B - $3 B Drugs ($1.2B Core) $3 B - $6 B Cash/stock $1 B - $1 B Drugs in JVs $1 B - $5 B Total $8 B - $17B Share Value $20+ - $40+ Less: Debt (1,989.0) Off B-S Debt (1,000.0) Total $5 B - $14B Shares 385 $13 - $36 per share