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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (10525)	2/17/2002 12:35:43 AM
From: Killswitch	Respond to of 19219

Actually from the Excel data I'm looking at, the ratio peaked out at 19.15 on Feb 7, and made a lower top at 18.91 on the 12th. It's down in the 16's now. I doubt it will bounce around this high much longer before heading back down...

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (10525)	2/17/2002 5:53:37 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

"That bear/bull ratio is going to the moon" I don't think so: stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[de][p][vc60]&pref=G

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (10525)	2/18/2002 12:03:54 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rob, it's the correlation that interests me. In the extremes, it should be a warning sign of significant risk. I would agree that as the ratio becomes more bearish, the risk of being short rises in the sense that if and when a bottom is hit, the bounce is likely to be more violent. This is the usual short squeeze train-is-leaving-the-station behavior seen at many bottoms. Tops tend to be rounded as people slowly come around to believing the market will not go higher. Bottoms tend to show sudden reversals as cash flows in from the sidelines and shorts cover. I don't think you can go so far as to suggest that because bearish sentiment is high, or "higher than ever" the market must soon reverse. This market could head much lower, and bearish sentiment could rise a lot further before the bottom is reached. What the chart suggests is not that it has to happen soon, but that when it does it is likely to be an abrupt reversal, just like almost every other bottom reversal. Dan