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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (158957)	2/17/2002 12:57:52 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Don't you realize that Intel is still making CPUs on .18u, and that they will continue making chipsets, X-Scale processors, flash, networking and communication chips, and other devices on this process for years to come? This is the one thing the Droids can't seem to understand. They honestly think Intel uses all it's fabs making nothing but current generation processors. EP

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (158957)	2/17/2002 11:38:27 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: What do you mean by going full force with .13u? Don't you realize that Intel is still making CPUs on .18u, and that they will continue making chipsets, X-Scale processors, flash, networking and communication chips, and other devices on this process for years to come? Celerons, and PIII moved to .13 ahead of P4, and P4's cost at .18 was estimated by one of the analysts recently at nearly $100, while their unit cost at .13 was estimated at $60 - so they must be anxious to get P4 off .18 ASAP. Now, what's your estimate for Intel's ASP and unit volume last quarter? How about 27 million units at $150 each? I know that ASP seems very low since Intel ASPs were close to $200 until recently and their unit costs are much higher now, too, but let's just start there. That gives a processor revenue of $4.05 billion. Let's say they also sold 12 million PC chipsets and 6 million PC motherboards. Say the chipsets are $30 each and the motherboards are $100 each - that's another $960 million that isn't .13 production, and now we're up to about $5 billion. They reported $5.8 billion in revenues for the IAG group which would have included what else do you think? Those whitebox servers Intel quietly sells in non-domestic markets to avoid infuriating Dell and Compaq? Is Strong Arm part of the IAG? Or, should the ASP have been higher or the units higher? Either way, .13 chips are awfully important here. The next group is the comm group, with about $600 million in revenue. Let's assume the bulk of this stays .18 and above for the next 2 years. Wireless comm and computing is about $520 million.- there's probably about $300 million in flash sales there with the rest in network comm. Intel flash is going to .13 at about the same schedule as CPUs, (some already, and most of the rest as soon as possible) but let's assume that the networking stuff will stay .18 and above for the next 2 years. So this is $300 million moving quickly to .13 and $220 remaining above .13. Obviously, some of the higher end networking stuff will be .13, and some commodity flash will stay .18 for a while, but I think this is a reasonable heuristic - please comment if you disagree [I'm confident you won't be shy!]. All other is $82 million revenue with $656 million in losses. In summary, .13 is awfully important to Intel, with about 65% of their gross revenue expected to be from .13 chips next quarter. The remaining 35% of their gross revenue includes network switches, network cards, motherboards, software, and non-.13 chips. Particularly considering that the operating units at Intel that aren't moving quickly to .13 all lose money, the importance of their .13 chips is obvious. PS - Mike Magee has a new roadmap posted, theinquirer.net which seems to indicate that there won't be much .18 in CPUs from Intel by the end of next quarter. The progression in P4 speeds of 2GHZ last quarter, 2.2 this quarter, 2.4 next quarter, but only 2.5 for Q3 many indicate some near term scaling issues for P4. We know from overclockers that P4 can already be run higher than that, even without more than a good fan, so it may be that they've identified some reliability or durability issues at voltages necessary to run at the higher speeds with the gate thickness they're using. Since their roadmaps also continue to support 2.8GHZ for Q4, followed by 3GHZ Q1 of '03, there must be a fairly major stepping or process change planned for that time frame - or is it a matter of .09 being needed for P4 2.8GHZ and above, and they're going to start introducing a "hybrid" .09/.13 process for Q4?