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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (13949)	2/19/2002 10:59:51 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 79066

I can't speak for James, but I suspect both scenario's lead to similar outcome: a major liquidity crunch. Japan's implosion would possibly jack treasury rates as they repatriate funds to cover domestic obligations. JPM is substantial provider of domestic liquidity and a blow up there might cause a confidence crisis in domestic banking as well as sharp racheting up of credit spreads...read: non-prime borrowers get loans called unless they have funded debt. The recent squeeze in the commercial paper market has pressured JPM [and others] because bank lines that weren't expected to be used, have been. Please don't infer that I consider either scenario likely, just a consideration of how something like this could play out.