THE WORLD
Why Reward Iran's Zealots?
Reformers have no choice but to join in the anti-American chorus.
By NIKKI R. KEDDIE
President Bush's inclusion of Iran in an "axis of evil"
is a bizarre and seemingly inexplicable expansion of
his war on terrorism. It involves a disturbing--and
major--policy shift: Iran is now a potential military
target primarily because U.S. officials say it is
developing weapons of mass destruction. Bush's
hostile rhetoric, furthermore, has strengthened the
hands of Iran's religious hard-liners at the expense
of its reformers, who now have no alternative but to
unite behind the conservative clerics' virulent
anti-Americanism. Recent administration statements
explaining its position on Iran do not undo the
effects of its threats. It is hard to imagine a more
counterproductive policy.
The charges undergirding the policy shift are based
on an exaggeratedly negative view of Iran, an unwarranted dismissal of the role
reformists play and a misplaced belief that we can control change in Iran. For
example, many states are working on processes and collecting materials that
could lead to the production of nuclear weapons, but the U.S. does not
threaten most of them militarily and, indeed, has good relations with two states
that recently tested nuclear devices. We have been unable to stop any state
from developing nuclear weapons, whatever we say or do. Then there is the
Karine-A incident, the ship loaded with Iranian-supplied armaments that was
intercepted by Israelis before it reached the Palestinian Authority last month.
Numerous articles in the European press and in the Israeli daily newspaper
Haaretz have cast grave doubts on the Israeli government's official story. Some
suggest that a militant Palestinian faction opposed to Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat arranged the shipment to embarrass Arafat and scuttle any hopes of
peace. Others have raised the possibility that all or part of the smuggling
operation was stage-managed by some Israelis.
Iran, to be sure, opposes Israeli policies toward the Palestinians, an opposition
widely shared outside of the U.S. But Iran's support for Arafat and his
Palestinian Authority is overwhelmingly rhetorical. The only thing likely to
change Iran's attitude toward Israel is a settlement of the Israel-Palestine
conflict that ends Israeli occupation and creates a Palestinian state.
The U.S. charges that Tehran has facilitated the escape of some members of Al
Qaeda--its long-standing enemy--to Iran and is undermining the new Afghan
government in Kabul by meddling in western Afghanistan politics are especially
weak. For years, Iran has tried to seal its long border with Afghanistan, which
is the source of unwanted drugs and millions of refugees, but cracks remain.
And it seems strange to expect Iran not to have an interest in events in Afghan
territory near its borders, given the anarchy and warlordism that continue there.
But even if one accepted the Bush administration's charges against Iran, none
would pose a threat to the U.S. to justify a move away from negotiations
toward ultimatums. Besides its stated reasons, the administration appears to
accept Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's view that Iraq and Iran must be
threatened simultaneously. Most U.S. government officials want to bring down
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein but that might weaken Iraq and strengthen
Iran. A stronger Iran worries some in the administration, a danger they believe
is best obviated by threatening military action against it. These officials also
apparently think that reformers in Iran will back this policy. But a recent
independent Iranian public opinion poll and last week's huge anti-American
demonstrations show that most Iranians oppose it.
Contrary to the alarmist and negative views held by Israel and by many in the
Bush administration, Iran has undergone major changes in recent years. While
further progress in politics may be blocked for now because conservative
clerics control the main instruments of government, continuing changes in
Iranian society are causes for hope.
In international relations, Iran's government has encouraged the creation of
numerous economic and political ties with Western Europe and Japan. Many
officials, including Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and Foreign Minister
Kamal Kharrazi, have taken steps to improve relations with the U.S. Several
international conferences have been held in Iran, with the U.S. invited to
participate. One recent project, sponsored by the Iranian Institute of Imam
Khomeini and Islamic Revolution, involved the publication of the views, some
of them controversial by Iran's standards, of prominent U.S.-based Iran
scholars. Regrettably, these trends toward better relations with the West,
doggedly contested by conservatives, have been further undermined by Bush's
"axis of evil" rhetoric. Already, there have been consequences. Khatami and
other reformers called for anti-American protests Feb. 11, and millions
responded.
Hopeful long-term developments within Iran include the expansion of civil
society, education, health and women's roles. In four national elections since
1997, reformist candidates received a huge majority of votes, and the great
majority of them took their seats. Despite crackdowns on the reformist press,
book publishing remains remarkably open, including translations of
controversial works about Iran. Education has expanded to include most boys
and girls, and the curriculum is overwhelmingly modern. Women now constitute
a slight majority of the students at Tehran University.
Women's and reformists' struggles have succeeded in restoring a number of
legal rights for women nullified by Iran's former supreme leader, Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, though much more remains to be done. Women are
prominent in nearly all professions. Proportionally, there are probably more
women film directors in Iran than anywhere else, and Iranian films highlight
social problems in ways impossible in more dictatorial countries. Conservative
curbs on dress and behavior are increasingly flaunted with impunity. The
government has also pursued one of the world's most effective voluntary
birth-control programs.
Newly educated and largely reformist Iranians dislike Iran's clerical regime, are
discouraged by the country's bad economic situation and resist limits on their
freedom, but they also reject U.S. threats against their country. Reformers in
Iran differ about what to do to end conservative clerical control, but they
overwhelmingly agree that U.S. threats to strike militarily at suspected
nuclear-weapons factories can only reduce the possibilities for more open
domestic and foreign policies.
Before greater harm is inflicted upon U.S.-Iran relations, the Bush
administration should back off its counterproductive rhetoric and instead build
on Iran's underlying trend toward change and numerous recent helpful acts in
the war on terrorism, such as allowing U.S. food relief to be unloaded at a gulf
port. Continuing current U.S. policy can only give further aid and comfort to
Iran's hard-line clerics.
*
Nikki R. Keddie, professor emerita of history at UCLA, is the author of
"Roots of the Revolution: An Interpretive History of Modern Iran" and
co-editor, with Rudi Matthee, of "Iran and the Surrounding War: Interactions in
Culture and Cultural Politics." CC |
