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Strategies & Market Trends : BEFRIEND THE TREND Short-term Options Trading Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (943)	2/17/2002 8:25:33 PM
From: SusieQ1065	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4058

It attracts me because it looks toppy to me, too... but it hasn't yet formed any kind of reversal candle...and volume was strong on Friday, so i think you could make a case for a possible breakout on it. with an Average True Range of over 5 points per month, it seems like you might have a chance at one side or the other going into the money. BBY i'll probably wait until earnings, Mar 19th.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (943)	2/18/2002 9:50:17 AM
From: SusieQ1065	Respond to of 4058

RE: MO....OI shorted it last week at $50 and now they say they are covering as it has punctured a long term downtrend line... The same thing can be said about the position we took in Philip Morris (NYSE:MO) last week. In fact, I'm pulling the plug this weekend. Not only did the stock push through its recent highs near $50, it also punctured its long-term descending trendline. Once again, my readers were right in stating that I was premature on this play. Maybe I'm becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator? "Phillips says go short, I'm going long!" MO $51.48 Too early to get in and perhaps too early to get out, but I just don't like the price action in MO. As you could tell from my tepid writeup when we added the play last week, the bullish action in the stock had me nervous, and rightly so. MO spent the entire week working higher, even in the midst of weakness in the broad market on Friday. While our stop at $51.50 hasn't been tripped yet, in looking at the long term trendline, I saw that the stock moved above that level this week and shows no sign of reversing over the near term. I continue to think that the stock should trade back into the low $40s in the weeks ahead, but with the broken bearish trendline, I've lost too much of my conviction to keep the play alive. Those that have the play open might want to wait for the next cycle down on the daily chart to obtain a more favorable exit, but as for me, I'm pulling the plug this weekend. ~Mark Phillips, OI