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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (15153)	2/17/2002 9:36:54 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Instead of arguing about the significance of the tops and bottoms we test the significance of the daily action - there we have hundreds of data points - with appropriate lag structure of course. The first test I would run is called "Granger Causality" which shows which series can predict the other and hints about the direction of causality. This one shows News Corp maybe beginning to lead the NDX as it did out of the September bottom: cres.anu.edu.au Here is one of my own indicators in the NASDAQ bear: cres.anu.edu.au Shorting when it first crosses below about 0.75 and covering when above 1 would be a profitable strategy. Not a good short opportunity here at least. David