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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 12:08:48 PM
From: Daveyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

LG,good to see you post your view.My system has not yet turned long but it's close.I sometimes jump the gun a little with partial positions.Running just a tad long versus short here in my trading account.75% cash cause I'm not sure FWIW.Anyway plenty of dry powder from here.Bears are getting cocky but they've been making the money.Nothing would surprise me from here.Waiting for the break one way or the other.Looks likely towards end of week from what I see.If I were to guess we start off ugly(this week) and turn up hard next week.I'll wait to put my money where my mouth is though cause I'm not certain. Best,Dave

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 1:11:50 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

LG, hi there ... I hope all is well with you. I think many of SO's posts in the past have been worth reading whether I agreed with them or not, and as you know, I have always greatly valued your calls. What I gather from your considerable post is that you don't think much of SO's record or his latest feel for the market. With that in mind, I hope (and much prefer) that you let us know what you see for the short term, medium term (defined under your parameters) ... and whether you see us in a new bull ... secular bear or cyclical trend etc. What pivot dates do you have in mind and all that other good stuff !!. On a personal note ... I hope all is going okay with the various family activities you were engaged in and that 2002 is treating you well so far !!.. Best regards Stephen

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 1:34:28 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Hey LG, Are u threatened by S.O's post? Truth hurts, eh? Regards, Peter edit: Time will tell... TICK TOC; tick toc; tick... Too much ego is not good for the brain, or trading...

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 1:38:53 PM
From: whydididothat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Regarding your statement: <Of course nothing is 100% in the markets, but I suspect you'll find yourself once again late to the party. If you are not preparing for the next leg up of the rally off the Sept01 pivot low, you're going to be on the wrong side of the next significant move...its all there in the chart structures...gg> Please post supporting charts or links as I prefer to form my own opinion based on the facts. Thanks

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 1:42:16 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

great to hear from you.. your site and beautiful charts have been sorely missed..

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 2:36:56 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I figure we're good for one more spike up to PE ratio of 65 on the SP and an INFINITE PE ratio on the NAZ 100 before the party's over. But I will short at the infinite PE ratio on the NAZ regardless of what the chart looks like. M.

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 4:03:06 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Excellent post, LG. Was reading & posting here at those bottoms Agree with your evaluation. Even though highly experienced traders can make an occasional bad call. I was wrong about a bottom in natural gas stocks in early August (and a few days later posted on SD II that I was stopped out) However, in SO's case we consistently see a heavy number of bearish posts late in a down trend, followed by more negative posts that are clearly fighting the subsequent market rally. Then, he disappears from the thread for months. IMHO, it's not only fair to post this information in a moderately worded msg, but also important to do so for the less experienced participants here. Message 15624090 is one of many examples in the days that followed the key pivot point when the rally was well under way. It's always tricky to make a major market OR sector call. And I usually spend more of my time with DD on individual stocks. But, Mike Watkins and I did call the April 2001 low correctly. OTOH think it's reasonable to point out rare cases of those like Stock Operator who post a heavy of bearish msgs near market lows late in each market decline. LG's post should not be be dismissed, but given serious thought by all who read this thread and are interested in being successfull traders. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Returning to the present, my work does indicate the current downtrend isn't over yet. So, as has been the case before, SO could get enough downside sometime in the next few weeks to gain the temporary credibility necesssary to pull some of the less well informed into a heavily short or high cash status when the market has bottomed or clearly entered a new rally phase. When I get some confirmation of a good bottom I'll be reinvesting my current 80% cash position. Best regards, Isopatch

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 5:07:43 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

LG, It's nice to be able to selectively pick and choose any post from the past to make your point. What you've accomplished by doing so I'm not really quite sure. But if you really want to leave yourself open to the scrutiny of anyone going back in your past and analyzing every good or bad call you ever made on SI you must be pretty confident you never made a bad call. I mean if we wanted to we could go all the way back to our MDD days, back in the hey day of the market advance when being a bull (of which I was a member) meant you were in very short company. I'm sure you remember those days well. You also neglected to point out my posts from the stock attack thread back at the very highs in the market in early 2000. Posts that were warning of the coming collapse in equity prices based on my views of the overall price structure on the charts. Back then BRCM was 243, CSCO in the 70's, BRCD in the 200's. Think back to those times how many professionals were calling for such a downturn. Hey I'm just a guy like you posting my opinions on SI for all the world to see. Opinions that I have freely shared over the years by going out on a limb by being as specific as possible. Has my analysis always been right. Of course not, you already pointed that out. But you know as well as anyone that has read my posts over the years that I have not been afraid to take a stand a print my views on the market. Whether we were talking about overall market direction or the movement of individual stock prices I have always printed exactly what I've seen. Of course that means I'm going to leave myself open for a post like yours where you can very easily go back and pick and choose the posts to make your point. There gonna be easy to find because I have always put myself on the line. Now I ask you if I started digging back in your history would I find the same thing. It's unfortunate we had to even go in this direction. In my recent post to JRI I admitted to being caught flat footed during the time frames that you mentioned. But what has unfolded over the past six months. A new bull market. Those quarterly advances that were indeed impressive were nothing more than prices advancing in an overall down trend. We have not had a breakout in the overall avgs. So when you say I will be late to the party I don't know what you mean. That downtrend is and has always been intact from those 4/2000 highs. If the market advances here based off "whatever" and starts to break through that resistance I wouldn't hesitate to say so and of course change my trading accordingly. But as of yet that has not happened. Let me finish off by saying that I have no hard feelings toward you. Over the years I have come to respect you and what you tried to keep together at MDD. It sounds like though you have something to say about the overall direction of the market. You see something out there that makes my opinions seem invalid. Well say so. Bring them to light. I would be happy to point out all the technicals reasons why I think you're wrong. All in good faith. Regards, SO

To: HairBall who wrote (30263)	2/18/2002 5:15:11 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 52237

Well Golly look who popped up here<G> LG always nice to see your alive and kicking.. hope you and yours are doing well... best regards OJ