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To: sun-tzu who wrote (31493)	2/18/2002 4:50:14 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

sun-tzu, if I understand yesterday's post correctly, you feel that in February a new short term low will be put in that will enable you to ride a rally through the end of March. Other than seasonality, do you see another fundamental catalyst for your scenario? Also, which fib retracement from the January high do you think the February low in your scenario will come nearest to?

To: sun-tzu who wrote (31493)	2/18/2002 6:45:13 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

My road map has 3 of C of B heading up for a couple of months and 4 of C of B into the May cycle low period. Final push up into the summer in wave 5 of C of B. First wave down of the big C could go into the October period... then wave 2 up and wave 3 down to hit the next 9 month low in February. Waves 4 and 5 of C would then spin out to mid 2003 for the bottom of the bear. That's a NAS count. The wave numbering on the Dow is quite different but similar turning points. I agree that the catalyst up is the "recession that never happened" (i.e. everyone knows now there was only one negative quarter), huge liquidity, some short covering etc., inventory run down complete etc. The catalyst down will be rising interest rates and falling USD. I see gold as completing a 5 wave leading diagonal up to the point where the stock market bottomed just last Friday 8th. Gold is already off as predicted. Gold needs a 3 wave correction. This coincides with 3 waves up in the stock markets. Then gold rallies in wave 3 up as the stock market goes into wave C down. About 6 months from here. David