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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Logain Ablar who wrote (13956)2/19/2002 1:40:35 AM
From: blankmind  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78549
 
- Tim, you're the reason i like Tyco so much

- back in '99 or so, the same fears surfaced; & the stock totally recovered & then some within 5 or 6 weeks. It's dejavu all over again

- 1st - if Tyco had to sell CIT at a loss, they probably wouldn't sell it. The CEO said he's going to have CIT run as a stand-a-lone; & either spin off to shareholders or sell. Trust me - Tyco is wallowing in cash

- 2nd - per their 10q for 1st qtr ending 12/31/01 - Tyco did $3 bill of acquisitions; $1 bill in cash & $2 bill in stock.

- bottom line - Tyco is so cash flow positive & profitable, that they're continuing on w/ their acquisitions - without driving up their debt levels



To: Logain Ablar who wrote (13956)2/19/2002 1:44:16 AM
From: blankmind  Respond to of 78549
 
Tim, here's a post from yahoo which sums up the CIT split from Tyco much better than i could:

: grandvn (55/M/Amelia Island, Fl)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/18/02 09:35 am
Msg: 129042 of 129051

CIT Probably gets sold for $7.5B or so with TYC holding a 20% stake. Buyer maybe a surprise, perhaps AXP returns to the commercial market after its bowing out over the Salad Oil Fiasco of the early 60's. Who knows, but even at 7.5B, TYC comes out a winner:

At least $30Billion Debt gone from consoladated Statements

About $4 billion will go to pay down Commercial Paper.

$3.5B into a share buyback, perhaps as high as $40

With the pressure off the balance sheet and near term debt obliterated, a steady rise back to $50 or so by year end is not out of the question.



To: Logain Ablar who wrote (13956)2/19/2002 1:46:38 AM
From: blankmind  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78549
 
Tim - or anyone with insurance -

- have an opinion on ESG Re - a bermuda reinsurer

- per my notes.... ESREF happens to be a totally undervaled stock:

- they're in the re-insurance business, which is entering an "up-cycle" in pricing & that's good
- $9.00/book value per share; trading at $3.25
- profitable for the latest quarter
- they've shed all their ridiculous sideline businesses
- they came out unscathed from the islamic terror attack on 11 sep
- best of all - they got upgraded by S&P