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Strategies & Market Trends : BEFRIEND THE TREND Short-term Options Trading Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (974)	3/5/2002 1:56:28 PM
From: R2O	Respond to of 4058

Hello. I surely agree w. the comments, however according to your link at semi.org: "The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks billings and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and orders of the chips themselves ." With regard to semi equipment manufacturers, I have no data wrt order to bill lead time distribution, (Any references for this data?) but would guess 4 months to 1 year. Viewing the increase in orders for previous few months we ought to expect the billings decline to begin reversal perhaps next month. Moreover, these are often large cap ex orders, so good homework should be able to dig up info prior to actual orders, perhaps even from their customer's SEC filings. I would guess that there would be very little inventory to draw down since most equipment is made to order not on spec. Semi device delivery lead times are much shorter and there is usually significant 'inventory' since tested wafers provide a cheap fast turn resting spot for WIP. I would guess that inventory workoffs could yield an increase in all kinds of good things, such as productivity increases, margins (depending on accounting used?), but probably would have minimal effects on book-to-bill. Is there a site listing semiconductor devices ('the chips themselves')book-to-bill? I also seem to recall that 'double booking' numbers are available 'somewhere'. R2O