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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pls418 who wrote (12484)	2/19/2002 1:18:18 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Steve, Since I have been converted to the charts, it's not terrifically important to me whether a company makes money or not these days, or whether they make routers, widgets or maxi-pads, but both SI and Yahoo say JNPR is losing money (which gives them a p/e of N/A): biz.yahoo.com siliconinvestor.com Funny thing but I get another "N/A" on p/e for FLEX, again from two sources. biz.yahoo.com siliconinvestor.com I think that makes you "O for 2," but it's not terrifically important. Argue with SI and Yahoo if you wish. If you want to bring up the other name we can check that one and find out that reported sources claim it has/had no earnings either, but it's no big deal. Like I said, earnings aren't that important to me anymore, since what I really want to know is not GAAP earnings, or pro forma earnings or EBITDA earnings, or earnings including extraordinary gains on minority investments, but rather where the stock is likely to go. Now Dabummy can hope in his heart that JNPR is about to make a double bottom, and maybe it will in a few days, but that ain't what the chart is saying. This chart is not showing a single sign of bottoming or reversal up to this point. stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!b10!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G Could it change by close of Tuesday? Sure, it could change by noon on Tuesday, but what I'm saying is it isn't present in this chart. Maybe it's an insider scoop, maybe it's an FA story, but it's not in the chart, not yet. As for FLEX, about which I know zero, one could only say that the chart is somewhat more "turn aroundish" than JNPR's but ONLY in that it is somewhat more oversold than JNPR's. stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!b10!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G People here are looking for double and triple bottoms. Helas, hope springs eternal. But think for a moment of all the poor sods who bought LU and Nortel on second and third bottoms which turned out not to be bottoms at all, but merely cliffs on the way down. I myself bought FLC a few years ago (remember FLC??) at 14 on a for sure can't lose double bottom; I sold it at 12 and it finally bottomed in the $5 range. The VIX is 24.09, very very low now(translate, this ain't the time to be making big long bets). Why are people getting so antsy to pony up their money on double and triple bottoms which very well may not hold? Personally, I don't care what JNPR and FLEX make or don't make (that includes manufactured goods, E as in earnings, or even their pro forma, super massaged numbers for the next 3 quarters). I only care to make a bet with my money when I see something in the charts telling me that the sellers are gone and the buyers are back. Until then, in the words of Kollmnh, I wouldn't even buy these names with YOUR money. Kb

To: pls418 who wrote (12484)	2/19/2002 1:39:38 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Steve, I mean this in a friendly way but you wrote, and I quote: "Other stocks that are making a double bottom are CIEN,JDSU, I'm the first to admit I know nothing about technical analysis . . . " A "double bottom" is a technical term, if I'm not mistaken. It certainly isn't a term from FA, or from the Securities Act. If you know nothing about TA, by your own admission, then how could you possibly tell that these two stocks are "making a double bottom.??? It's like saying you've looked at a friend's knee and it's a full tear of the anterior cruciate ligament, but you admit you know nothing about orthopaedic surgery. Let me help you out here, and I mean this in a constructive way. You don't know that CIEN and JDSU are making a double bottom here. You don't know it for one very simple reason. Nobody knows it, nobody could know it. Yet. All we can know is that CIEN has already gone below the September "bottom" not once but twice and the stock looks to go lower still. All we can know, at this point, is that JDSU has retraced the path to the September low; again, it looks poised to go even lower. But that's all anyone can know at this point. Regardez les charts, it's all there, but this is like a mystery story where we need to read the next page to find the next clue: stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!b10!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyyay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!b10!f][vc60][iut!Lk14!Lb14!Ld20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G The next clue will not be available until after 9:30 a.m. Tuesday morning, EST. Kb

To: pls418 who wrote (12484)	2/19/2002 3:11:19 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Respond to of 23153

PLS418, you said to KB about JNPR "why do you say companies are losing money when they are not?" JNPR lost $5.1 million in Q4, and $13.4 million last year. Perhaps you've gotten caught up in the pro-forma madness and you believe they actually made $15.9 million and $170 million respectively. JNPR is going into a death spiral brought about by decrease in demand for their products, competition by one of the most powerful companies in the field - CSCO, and general over capacity in all things telecom. I would be very wary of this stock. Sharp