Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (6779)	2/19/2002 10:55:13 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206326

APA is finally getting some of the recognition it's has deserved for the last several years. My guess is APA takes over from APC this year as the institutional favorite. Raymond James is now prediction the next NG crisis this winter: APA is by far the best managed company in the patch. Production grew by 30.29% in Q4 over Q4 2001, and leverage is down to 33.6%. Not an easy tack for a company the size of APA. Keep your eye on APA. When it turns, the next up cycle will begin in XNG stocks. We Will Run Out of Natural Gas Next Winter Regardless of where storage ends the injection season, we believe there is a very high probability that winter-ending gas storage (in 2003) will fall well below 1,000 and push gas prices through the roof. As shown in the table below, we have outlined three different scenarios for 2002/03 winter-ending gas storage. Note that in our high case (which assumes another record warm winter) storage ends up well below 1,200 Bcf. In the more likely cases where weather trends back toward normal, implied storage would end at untested lows. Conclusion While the near-term natural gas outlook remains clouded by weather and market psychology, it is apparent to us that the U.S. will be in the midst of another full-blown natural gas crisis within the next 12 months. We can all argue about the exact magnitude of year-over-year gas supply changes, the size of year-over-year industrial demand increases, and the impact year-over-year of weather. If we combine the likely impact of all three, however, our numbers suggest there is a very high probability that gas prices will have to increase sufficiently next winter to squeeze out demand (see gas prices in the winter of 2000/2001) Jim