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To: ild who wrote (152129)	2/19/2002 1:02:10 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<do you have an estimate of how much pension fund troubles can reduce SP500 future earnings? >> No, I do not and I won't really have a chance to make even a good educated guess until I see the 10ks. The order of magnitude on a say $50 S&P 500 earnings estimate (which is +/- the consensus, I think) would be a couple of bucks. I'm frankly more interested in the reductions in the 9.5-11.0% return assumptions that a lot of companies have to more realistic levels, and then what changes to those assumptions will do to the theoretical funding of the plan. I think this hysteria about accounting and general corporate governance is going to be with us for some time, and if it suddenly becomes widely thought that pension plans across America are insufficiently funded (while top executives have been using pension gains to pad earnings to support higher stock prices to sell their stock options into...) well.... Cheers