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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (31082)	2/19/2002 6:56:17 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

briefig.com/BTB comment--<<Live Headline 19-Feb-02 18:42 ET Semi Equipment book/bill rises to 0.81 in January : The North American semiconductor book/bill ratio rose to 0.81 in January from 0.77 in December. Though an increase is better than a decrease, two factors argue against excessive optimism: some had expected a bigger increase (Salomon's estimate was 0.85-0.90), and the increase was due more to falling shipments than rising orders; orders only ticked up slightly and have been bouncing along the bottom since September.>> nothing for a reasonable being to get excited about.Max

To: t2 who wrote (31082)	2/19/2002 7:12:04 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Per the briefing headline, NV, the book to bill didn't meet SSB's expectations. Mine are irrelevant :-) I think the B2B is basically meaningless here. It's not good enough to cause a rally. It's not showing renewed utter misery, either. The question really is whether or not the terribly slow move off the bottom in business forces people to re-evaluate the rather fast move off the bottom in stock prices. I do think that re-evaluation will come at some point, though I really don't know if it happens here. Maybe weakness here, but I doubt the full on repricing. Still, if it DOES happen here, Zeev's targets will certainly be breached. But again, since the common wisdom is that the semis will lead us out of the bottom, the stocks will probably stay "overvalued" far longer than I expect. the freep