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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Robert Graham who wrote (30418)2/20/2002 8:22:19 AM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52237
 
So, are you throwing the towel in here then? Or just waiting it out a little longer.

No doubt sentiment is not the greatest timing indicator. It can go to extremes that are not imagined, and it can stay there for some time.

So far- with all the pessimism and gloom- we have a market that is still well above the lows seen 5 months ago. Looking back at the 2000-01 bear market- there were no periods of more than 6 months where the SPX or NASDAQ did not see new lows. We'd have to see a steep drop from here to see new lows in the next 4 weeks. Failing that- would be another indication that the bear market was indeed over last September.

Could still happen in the next month- but we'd be WAY undervalued if it did. So I'll be a buyer there. Here's some old maxims on light market volume in relation to future movement:

- A decline on light volume is not necessarily bullish if the quality of market leadership is high on the decline.
- A decline on light volume is especially bullish if the quality of market leadership deteriorates on the decline.

Looking at the market volume leaders for yesterday, I'd have to say it's inconclusive whether the market leadership was high quality or not. We could indeed get more decline today. I've said before that SPX 1050 really sticks out as a potential LT support. We may still get there..

TW